Estimated AIDS deaths for 2011

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S.Africa: AIDS deaths increase by 6.2% annually (at least…) – Estimated AIDS deaths for 2011
Date Posted: Monday 01-Sep-2008

I was browsing the article I put up about AIDS and that at least 500,000 die of it annually. I am referring to this one: S.Africa: 500,000 people die of HIV/AIDS each year now…

I then decided to quickly work back and to estimate an annual increase in deaths. If 370,000 died in 2003, and 500,000 are dying now, then we are looking at a 35% increase in deaths over 5 years. If we work backwards we get the compounded increase rate of 6.2%.

I know that AIDS growth rates is very complex to model, etc – but I think we won’t be far off the mark if we calculate the possible AIDS related deaths for 3 years from now. This works out as: 600,000 per year by 2011.

(NB: Chances are even these figures are a bit conservative).

Anyhow, these are large numbers that we are talking about. And, between now and 2011, more than 1.5 million people will have died of AIDS and HIV related illnesses.

That’s pretty intense stuff – far worse than most wars and far worse than most genocides.

In Zimbabwe, because the people are hungry and starving and malnourished, AIDS kills them much more quickly. I’ve heard that some people die within a FEW MONTHS after becoming HIV+. So keep in mind that in South Africa’s future, poverty will increase among the masses. Perhaps it will only really take effect in 10 years time, but it will come into play. So I think that within about 10 years, you’ll be seeing AIDS killing 1 million people a year in South Africa.
Posted By: Jan
AfricanCrisis Webmaster
Author of: Government by Deception

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