Goldman: The Market Has to Crash If Trump Wants to Win Trade War
Now that the Trump global trade war ceasefire is over with both allies (Canada, EU, Mexico) and adversaries (China), the hot takes are coming in, and none more exhaustive than a note by Goldman Sachs released overnight, in which economist Alec Phillips writes that less than two weeks after Steve Mnuchin declared that the “trade war is on hold,” a statement which China trade hawk Peter Navarro subsequently blasted as inaccurate, Trump’s policy has shifted substantially and “following trade announcements over the last few days, the trade war does not appear to be “on hold” but simply “on”, leaving even longtime observers of trade policy confused about the direction from here.”
So how should one try to make sense of Trump’s unique, confusing negotiating style? According to Goldman, at the start of the Trump Administration, “reciprocity” was the watchword guiding trade policy…..
But knowing its all rigged up… anything could happen!